The latest downturn in Bitcoin has triggered plenty of panic, with Q4 2025 bringing a noticeable wave of selling across the market. But while the pullback looks dramatic on the surface, it may not be the start of the kind of deep, 60–70% drawdowns we’ve seen in past cycles.

According to research from Bernstein, the recent drop is partly the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy — sentiment turns bearish, traders expect further declines, and the fear itself fuels additional selling. Yet the underlying data paints a much more measured picture.

Bernstein’s analysts argue that what we’re seeing now is more likely a short-term consolidation, one that could help Bitcoin establish a new local bottom rather than revisit the massive retracements of previous bear markets.

In other words: the market may be shaking out weak hands, not collapsing into a full cycle reset.

As always, crypto tends to punish impatience — but for long-term holders, this phase could end up being an important foundation for the next leg forward.